Bengal Tigress – Will Her Roar Reach Delhi?

Di Di (Mamta Banerjee)A Street Fighter and a Giant Killer in White Sari and Hawai Chappal is a bundle of contradictions.

1. 1. Coarse Correction: Sensing BJP Juggernaught that is when Di Di was sharp enough to course correct, hire Prashant Kishor as her adviser, step up her government’s outreach to citizens through welfare schemes, tone down on what could be construed as “Muslim appeasement”, play up her own Hindu roots, and stay focused even as key party leaders quit, resentful of Kishor and her nephew and heir apparent Abhishek Banerjee’s influence. The 2019 course correction helped her, like she did with the Left and the Centre, defeated the Right in 2021.
   2. Di Di a bundle of opposites: She defeated veteran Communits leader Somnath Chatterjee in 1984 from Jadavpur parliamentary constituency in West Bengal to become one of the youngest parliamentarians. This also makes it challenging to place Di Di in a neat ideological box. She is nimble and flexible in strategy. She is secular — but has practised the politics of religion. She led an anti-industry (Tata) agitation — but has also wooed private capital in her state. She is a welfarist — though there is an obvious element of party capture of the welfare schemes. She is a democrat — but she has also presided over political violence. She is single and projects herself as devoted only to Bengal — but now faces accusations of nepotism. She can be a competent administrator — but has also been responsible for allowing corruption in Rs 2,707.77 crore released by Centre for Cyclone Amphan relief fund for South Bengal and taking her eyes off the ball during both the first and now second wave of Covid.
   3. EC blamed for COVID resurgence: Why did the Bengal Elections spread over months and conducted in seven phases, directly contributing to the spread of Virus?
      1. Distrust of State Machinery, therefore the requirement of Central Forces (CAPF) and use of EC key officials from outside the State. Limited resources thus the need to stagger elections.
      2. Need to explain the BJP narrative by deploying Star Campaigners holding big rallies. Thus the need to spread the campaigning season.
   4. Make-Up Artist failed. While Di Di has a well established Brand in White Cotton Sari and Hawai Chappal the BJP top leader tried to align his image to Tagore, the TMC cadre were quick to interpret this as Asa Ram. Failed strategy.
   5. Lessons from Bengal April 2021 Assembly Elections.
      1. Bengali’s love their cultural identity. Outsider Card worked against BJP. Daughter of Bengal stuck.
      2. Negative propaganda is counterproductive. Calling Mamta Begum or Di di “O” Di di remarks etc angered locals. The BJP Party Chief in Bengal Dilip Ghosh suggested “DI DI should wear a “Bermuda, if she wants to show her leg”. The remark was considered sexist and women voters were weaned away.
      3. Local Bengali pride was hurt and clearly trumped the Hindutva narrative. We cannot put all Hindu’s in a matchbox. Some die hard, some moderate, some selective and discerning to the need, not blinded by the call of Ram Mandir.
      4. Caste based vote bank; about 30% was guaranteed to Di Di. Breaking into the Hindu vote gave her 51% edge. Those banking on purely 60% Hindu votes needed 85% votes. Prashant Kishor calculated that BJP will not touch double figures. His maths was right.
      5. Votes on Development Strategy failed. TMC also had an outreach program. A cycle to every student passing 9th Class, Marriage grant to girls, Housing Grant, Water pipeline to every house. But we must give credit to BJP for introducing a development based election manifesto in the country.
      6. Buying disgruntled local leaders doesn’t help. Even the winners are old Di Di loyalists. Not dependable.
      7. Prashant Kishore is real modern day Chanakya
      8. Difficult to destabilize strong local governments. Delhi, Kerala, West Bengal.
      9. BJP will have to change its structure from strong autocratic central leadership to more democratic local leadership. Local CM face is required.
      10. That Di Di recited “Shlokas” or declared her Hindu Gotra as Kashyap, is a feather in the RSS cap. Minority appeasement policy needs to be balanced against the majority Hindu vote bank. Even Kejriwal acknowledged it. Indian politics is changing.
      11. Media is sold and misleading.  Talking to local Bengali’s they swore by Di Di. 
   6. BJP’s Poll Manager: Mota Bhai has been a disaster as poll manager. Pitching a PM against a CM. The party has the most charismatic leader to showcase. Party has humongous resources at their command and an elaborate network supported by the RSS. It is the Party in the Centre, thus using the government and its agencies. The Election Commission dances to Mota Bhai’s tunes,not to mention IAS Cadres, ED, NIA & CBI. This is the third time Mota Bhai was pitched against Prashant Kishor as opposition poll strategist and got a bloody nose — in Bihar in 2015, in Delhi and now Bengal. Not counting Andhra Pradesh and Punjab. 
   7. BJP Strategy: Buy out opposition leaders by carrot or stick. Let loose CBI to hound those who do not fall in line. Fool the illiterate masses by rhetorics “Jumla”. The Bengali Politician barring a few are average financially and nothing to worry from ED, EC or CBI. The Bengali electorate is educated and did not buy the “Jumla”. Most of those who have won are turn coats, old TMC. Going by Di Di claims, BJP would not have crossed 50 seats if EC was not latently supporting the Centre. 
   8. Nandigram: It was a bold move by Di Di to fight from Nandigram even though she lost her seat by 1956 votes. Geographically it was a tactical move to influence all neighbouring constituencies. Her party colleague and turncoat Suvendu Adhikari got 1.1 Lac votes or 48.5% vote share, while Di DI got 1.08 Lac votes or 47.6% votes. While it is in the grape wine that Suvendu crossed over because he saw no future as Di Di, now 66 years old, was developing her nephew Abhishek Banerjee young MBA and 33,  a charge of nepotism is made out. Abhishek has proved himself with TMC winning 29 of the 31 seats in South 24 Parganas which is his forte. Whatever the internal TMC party strategy for leadership development; in Corporate World there is a written agreement in severance package that on leaving the company you cannot join the competitor for two to three years. The Government of India lays similar restrictions on senior officers handling sensitive posts that they can not seek employment with a Foreign Government for a certain time. If you get elected in a legislature on a party ticket, then you have to follow the party whip, if you want to change your party allegiance then one has to resign from the legislature and fight an election afresh. There should be a Cooling Off period too for Party Workers too. Why are such high moral values not followed by politicians? Suvendu should have recused himself from fighting against Di Di, but then even in Ram Rajya we had a “bibhishan”.
   9. The Results at a glance. TMC retained its hold on rural Bengal. It gained SC seats. BJP made in-roads in North Bengal. BJP did play caste politics, that is why its vote share in SC seats improved. In Muslim populated pockets TMC had a clear advantage winning more than half the vote share and 119 of the 141 seats.  Most of the wins by TMC are decisive, big margins above 10,000 votes.
      Regional Tally 02.05.2021 W. Bengal Elections

      Region	Party	Seats	Vote Share %
      Gr. Kolkata	TMC	93	49.9
      	BJP +	14	34.9
      	Left-Cong-ISF	1	11.9
      	Others	0	3.3
      Jangal Mahal	TMC	33	46.1
      	BJP +	23	43.7
      	Left-Cong-ISF	0	7
      	Others	0	3.1
      Bardhaman	TMC	46	47.8
      	BJP +	8	39.9
      	Left-Cong-ISF	0	9
      	Others	0	3.2
      Chicken Neck	TMC	36	52.3
      	BJP +	11	30.7
      	Left-Cong-ISF	0	13.4
      	Others	0	3.7
      North Bengal	TMC	5	41.1
      	BJP +	21	48
      	Left-Cong-ISF	0	5
      	Others	1	5.9

      Credits: Numbers courtesy Times of India May 4th, 2021.

   10. Bengal is Bipolar now: The meteoric rise of BJP from 3 to 77 seats has changed Bengal politics for ever. TMC has won the battle, but should BJP return to power in Centre in 2024 then 4th round in 2026 will be an open war for Bengal. Di Di would be 71 years old and frail.
   11. What Next? The UPA has been sleeping for a long time. Sonia Gandhi is its chairperson. There is talk that Rahul Gandhi can take over the reigns of Congress. Priyanka can work at Party level and UPA can be led by Mamta Banerjee. Late President Pranab Mukerjee when asked if he thought of becoming the PM, he said that to aspire to become the PM, you need to be a grass root politician, have a State behind you and ability to speak Hindi. Di Di fulfils the criteria on all counts. While she is a clear front runner, her stature has been enhanced by BJP themselves, by pitching their leader directly against her. Di Di is ready to roar in Delhi.
   12. Punjab Assembly Elections are due in March 2022 and Capt. Amarinder Singh CM has already engaged the Chanakya of Politics, Prashant Kishor. It will be interesting to watch his 4th battle with BJP’s Mota Bhai.
   13. Best option is Federalism for India: Strong Centre for External Affairs & Defense. Strong State Government for all local issues. Respect for each other. The recent Amendment by Parliament GNCT of Delhi 2021 that the Government of GNCT means the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi makes the CM a puppet of the Centre, an insult to the Citizen of Delhi and is a step to weaken the Federal Structure of the Nation.

[About the Author: The Author: Lt. Col. Atul Chaudhary (V) I.A. is a Project Management expert, who has consolidated the news of recent Bengal Assembly Elections, with Lessons, Tactics, Strategy and Implications for tomorrow to assist the readership. The views expressed are personal and Sachi-Baat is not responsible.]